AUD/USD Price Forecast: Sees fresh downside below 0.6830 as risk-off mood revives

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The AUD/USD pair is down 0.7% to near 0.6870 in the late Asian trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair faces intense selling pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms due to a risk-off mood.

AUD/USD plummets to near 0.6870 as risk-off sentiment weighs heavily on the Australian Dollar.
US President Trump warns that Washington will hit Iran extremely hard in the next two to three weeks.
The revival of Middle East risks has improved the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.48%	0.60%	0.37%	0.28%	0.76%	0.80%	0.58%
EUR	-0.48%		0.12%	-0.11%	-0.22%	0.29%	0.33%	0.09%
GBP	-0.60%	-0.12%		-0.23%	-0.32%	0.16%	0.23%	-0.04%
JPY	-0.37%	0.11%	0.23%		-0.10%	0.38%	0.43%	0.19%
CAD	-0.28%	0.22%	0.32%	0.10%		0.48%	0.52%	0.28%
AUD	-0.76%	-0.29%	-0.16%	-0.38%	-0.48%		0.05%	-0.23%
NZD	-0.80%	-0.33%	-0.23%	-0.43%	-0.52%	-0.05%		-0.25%
CHF	-0.58%	-0.09%	0.04%	-0.19%	-0.28%	0.23%	0.25%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade 1.25% lower, slightly below 6,500, reflecting weak demand for riskier assets.

Fresh threats from United States (US) President Donald Trump to intensify military attacks on Iran in the next two to three weeks have revived fears of a long-lasting Middle East war, which in turn has underpinned risk-off impulse again. “We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks, and bring them back to the stone ages,” Trump said.

Meanwhile, a fresh escalation in the Middle East war has improved the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar (USD). During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.5% to near 100.00.

On the macro front, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will be released on Friday.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades sharply lower at around 0.6870 at the press time. The pair holds below the descending 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 0.6970, capping rebounds and defining a near-term bearish bias after the late-March peak. Price action has shifted into a sequence of lower highs and lower closes, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling to hold above 40.00, strengthening the bearish bias.

Initial resistance aligns with the 20-day EMA near 0.6970, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure and open the way toward 0.7050. On the downside, immediate support emerges at Monday's low of 0.6833, where a break would extend the decline and expose the 0.6750 area as the next bearish target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

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