National Bank of Canada’s Ethan Currie notes that Canada’s apparent export diversification away from the United States in 2025 was heavily driven by Gold shipments, masking weaker underlying trade gains. The report stresses that Canada’s relative tariff advantage hinges on the upcoming USMCA review, while sector‑specific U.S. tariffs now dominate Canada’s effective tariff rate profile.

Gold-driven exports and USMCA risk focus

"In Canada, trade diversification to other partners has, on the surface, made up for less U.S.-bound exports. However, that’s largely a gold story, without which rerouted trade is not nearly as standout."

"That didn’t move the U.S. deficit much in 2025, but it did impact trade compositions, especially in Canada, where total exports struggle to advance on the year even as diversification plays out. That diversification is likely overstated too, as gold exports—predominantly already shipped overseas—benefitted from surging prices in the year."

"The legality of tariffs has been challenged, posing downside risks to global tariff rates. Certain sectors remain exposed to targeted levies, while many countries are patiently waiting for a trade deal to form. In Canada, an upcoming review of the USMCA agreement is paramount to maintain a relative tariff advantage."

"As USMCA exemptions were introduced, firms rushed to claim compliance. Now, sector-specific tariffs make up the bulk of Canada's tariff rate"

"In Canada, a review of the USMCA—which allows for a relatively favourable tariff rate on the global stage—will be a key input in economic forecasts."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)