Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) keeps a defensive tone as USD/CAD grinds higher despite firm domestic yields and crude. Their fair value estimate has slipped back toward 1.35, highlighting renewed overvaluation in the pair.

CAD stays defensive

"The CAD retains a defensive undertone, unable to resist the grind higher in the USD despite relatively firm domestic yields, firm crude and relatively steady risk appetite today."

"Our fair value estimate for USD has dipped fractionally back towards the 1.35 area this morning (1.3504), stretching the USD’s apparent overvaluation back towards the more extreme divergence seen in April."

"Neutral/bullish—The USD continues to pressure the 50% retracement resistance of the March 31/May 1 decline from 1.3967 to 1.3550 at 1.3758."

"A further squeeze higher remains an obvious risk in the short run as short-term trend dynamics turn more USD-bullish."

"We look for resistance around 1.3800/15, with a firmer technical block on dollar gains likely to emerge in the upper 1.38s/low 1.39s. Support is 1.3715/25."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)