Scotiabank analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro is stabilizing after a minor NFP-driven setback, with improving yield spreads and recovering correlations pointing back to fundamentals. The broader technical trend since February 2025 remains bullish, with resistance seen just above 1.19 and little meaningful resistance before 1.20, while near-term trading is expected between 1.1850 and 1.1950.

Euro supported by spreads and techs

"The EUR is entering Thursday’s NA session with a fractional gain and showing signs of stabilization following Wednesday’s minor NFP(US jobs)-driven tumble."

"Fundamentally, yield spreads are extending their latest recovery and climbing back to the multi-year high reached in late Dec/early Jan."

"Spread correlations are also recovering, suggesting a return to fundamentally driven movement."

"EURUSD short-term technicals: Bullish—the overall technical picture remains bullish given the trend from February 2025."

"Recent gains appear to have stalled above 1.19, around 1.1920, however we see no meaningful resistance ahead of the psychologically important 1.20 level."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)