• EUR/USD remains supported at the start of the week, helped by a weaker US Dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty.
• German consumer sentiment deteriorates more than expected, reflecting current economic tensions.
• Markets await the Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions later this week.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1740 on Monday, up 0.21% on the day, extending Friday’s rebound from the 1.1670 area, despite a more fragile macroeconomic backdrop in the Eurozone.

Latest data from Germany show a marked deterioration in consumer confidence. The GfK index falls to -33.3 in May, its lowest level in more than three years, from -28.1 previously and well below market expectations. This decline highlights the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices on European households. However, the Euro’s (EUR) reaction remains limited, as investors currently focus on external drivers.

The main market catalyst remains developments in the Middle East. Hopes for easing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are supporting risk appetite, weighing on demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). According to reports from Axios, Tehran has submitted a new peace proposal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, fostering cautious optimism. Nevertheless, negotiations remain stalled, and disruptions to Oil supply keep Crude prices near $100 per barrel, a level that could weigh on global growth.

In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is declining, reflecting broad-based weakness in the Greenback. Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, alongside the possibility of a more dovish stance ahead, are also contributing to the downside pressure on the USD.

Investors now turn their attention to upcoming monetary policy decisions this week. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to follow suit on Thursday, although it may signal future tightening amid persistent inflationary pressures, particularly driven by energy prices. According to ING, a firm ECB message regarding a potential rate hike could help keep the Euro supported in the short term.

Overall, despite weakening European fundamentals, EUR/USD dynamics remain primarily driven by external factors, particularly US Dollar movements and geopolitical developments.