• EUR/USD attempts to regain the 1.1400 line after bouncing at 1.1320 lows.
• Uncertainty about the status of the Strait of Hormuz is putting the ceasefire into question and weighing on risk appetite.
• The pair is in a corrective recovery, likely to meet significant resistance in the 1.1500 area.

The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday but is struggling to confirm a move above 1.1400, with the 13-month low in the 1.1320 area still within relatively close reach. The uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire and investors’ caution ahead of a series of US inflation figures are keeping Euro recovery attempts limited so far.

Latest reports affirm that the US and Iran have agreed to stop the hostilities that shook the fragile ceasefire this weekend, but the status of the peace negotiations remains unclear. Iranian authorities announced talks with Oman to manage the key Strait of Hormuz, and the US Navy has raised the threat level in the waterway to “significantly high”, which is keeping investors on edge.

çIn the economic calendar, the highlight today will be the speech of European Central Bank (ECB) President  Christine Lagarde at the opening of the central bank’s forum in Sintra, Portugal. Traders, however, are likely to keep a wait-and-see stance, awaiting the release of a batch of US employment figures, to shed further light on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: Corrective recovery for the Euro

EUR/USD trades at 1.1400, on a corrective rebound from 13-month lows, at 1.1320, with the broader bearish trend intact. Momentum indicators are bouncing up from oversold levels as the Relative Strength Index (14) reaches the mid-50s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns positive.

The pair, however, remains contained below a previous support, in the area of 1.1430, which is closing the path towards the 1.1500 region (June 8, 11 lows), and a strong resistance area between 1.1620 and 1.1660, which capped bulls several times in May and June.

On the downside, initial support is at the mentioned 13-month lows near 1.1320. Further down, bears might be tempted to revisit the late May 2025 lows, at .1210.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)