Euro remains capped below 1.1400 despite bright Eurozone preliminary PMIs

EUR/USD hovers around 1.1385, with the 13-month low of 1.1324 at a short distance.
The upbeat Eurozone preliminary PMI figures have failed to offset the risk-averse sentiment.
A mix of geopolitical concerns, rising Oil prices, and fresh trade wars are keeping Euro bulls subdued.

The Euro (EUR) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday but remains capped below 1.1400, and dangerously close to the year-to-date low, at 1.1324. Business activity figures from the Eurozone and Germany have beaten expectations but failed to offset the risk-off market mood amid rising concerns about the economic consequences of the conflict in the Middle East.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Eurozone Preliminary HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) revealed that manufacturing activity accelerated to 52.0 in July, from 51.4 in June, beating expectations of a mild slowdown to 51.3. In the same line, Services PMI rose to 51.6, returning to expansion levels after having contracted in the previous three months. June’s PMI was at 49.4, and market analysts had forecasted an improvement to 49.8.

Before that, German HCOB Preliminary PMI data showed that the manufacturing sector improved to 52.2 in July from 50.3 in June, against expectations of a slowdown to 50.1. German Services PMI also beat expectations with a 49.6 reading, well above the 48.8 market consensus, and also above the 48.6 reading posted in the previous month.

Risk aversion and higher Oil prices, however, have been posing a heavy weight on the Euro this week. Reports of attacks on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea have pushed Brent Oil to levels well above $90, heightening concerns about the exposure of Eurozone economies to high Oil prices. US President Trump has threatened a "massive attack" on Iran in response, altogether fuelling investors' rush for safety, which is buoying the US Dollar's rally.

To sour market sentiment further, Trump’s administration announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on more than 80 trading partners, including the European Union, to replace the global 10% tariffs rebuked by the US Congress.

Economic Indicator

HCOB Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.

Economic Indicator

HCOB Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.