Philip Wee at DBS highlights uncertainty around new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s approach, noting President Trump’s preference for lower rates and Warsh’s reform-oriented stance. Warsh may downplay dot plots and even abstain from June rate forecasts, which could create friction with markets and colleagues if PCE inflation surprises on the upside, adding to policy ambiguity for Dollar traders.

Warsh seen downplaying dot plots

"Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair at the White House on May 22. While stating that Warsh would “do his own thing” in upholding the Fed’s independence and interest rates, President Trump did not hide his desire for Warsh to start lowering interest rates."

"Warsh’s acceptance speech focused on leading a “reformed-oriented” Fed by moving away from backward-looking and economic dogmas, pursuing a dual mandate that can simultaneously achieve lower inflation with stronger growth, reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, and pivoting away from forward guidance dot plots and heavily parsed press conferences."

"Instead, Warsh may abstain from providing his interest rate forecasts in the June Summary of Economic Projections, aligning with his disdain for forward guidance that locks the FOMC into pre-emptive policy paths. Doing so will allow Warsh to either prevent a rift with Trump over a hawkish projection or avoid losing credibility with the market through a dovish forecast."

"Instead, Warsh’s debut FOMC meeting on June 17 could be the start of a phase to downplay the dot plot’s significance as a policy roadmap. However, if this Thursday’s PCE inflation data comes in hot, Warsh’s strategy may create friction with the market and his Fed colleagues."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)