• Lower US jobless claims reinforced Dollar support and capped Sterling gains.
• UK GDP beat forecasts, but failed to outweigh stronger US data.
• Ceasefire optimism helped risk sentiment, though fundamentals still pressured Sterling.

The GBP/USD dropped by 0.17% on Thursday as US jobs data outshone UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data revealed during the European session. expectations for a peace deal between the US and Iran, keep the market mood upbeat. The pair trades at 1.3534 after reaching a high shy of the 1.36 handle.

Sterling eases despite solid UK GDP and fresh ceasefire hopes

Initial Jobless Claims in the US dipped from 219K to 207K in the week ending April 11, below forecasts for a 215K print. Although the print is good, the latest employment report and JOLTS data hint that the economy is in a low-hiring, low-firing mode. The Federal Reserve revealed that Industrial Production is slowing down, with the print dropping from 0.7% to -0.5% MoM. Motor vehicles, parts, and utilities fell the most, indicating that the economy is decelerating.

Speeched by Federal Reserve officials confirms the central bank’s policy stance. NY Fed John Williams said that Iran’s war is driving up prices and expects a jump in headline inflation. Regarding the police stance, he said it’s well-positioned.

Echoing some of his comments but remaining uber-dovish is Governor Miran, who said that he expects three cuts instead of four, “given ‘less favorable’ inflation developments.”

In the UK, the economy rose by 0.5% MoM in February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), above estimates of a 0.2% expansion.

Fundamentally speaking, there is no reason for Sterling’s strength. The fact of being a net importer of energy weighed on the Pound, which fell 1.9% in March amid the eruption of the Middle East conflict, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, hopes for a peace deal triggered a U-turn in GBP/USD, which reclaimed the 1.3500 mark.

Another reason for the recent GBP/USD strength is that expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would hike rates twice in 2026 are rising,

Back to geopolitics, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, beginning at 5:00 PM EDT. Continuing with the conflict in the eare, a Pakistani mediator was in Tehran, while the White House is optimistic about reaching a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3539. The pair holds above the cluster of simple moving averages (50-, 100- and 200-day SMA) gathered around 1.3427, keeping the near-term bias constructive while it rides an upward support trend line traced from 1.3035 and last validated near 1.3492. The fact that recent closes previously capped by the descending resistance trend line are now trading well above its last reaction point around 1.3436 suggests that prior overhead supply has turned into a broader demand zone beneath spot.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent trend-line-related area around 1.3490–1.3492, where the rising dynamic floor converges with prior reaction lows. A deeper pullback would expose the dense support band defined by the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered near 1.3427, which is likely to attract dip-buying interest while price holds above it; only a sustained break below this moving-average base would hint at a more pronounced corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)