OCBC’s Christopher Wong says USD/IDR should find near‑term support after Bank Indonesia’s larger‑than‑expected 50bp hike to 5.25%, aimed at stabilising FX sentiment. He argues the move provides a clearer policy anchor but stresses a sustained rupiah recovery still depends on lower Oil, easing geopolitical risks and calmer global yields, with technicals hinting at a potential bearish reversal in USD/IDR.

Policy anchor but external risks linger

"IDR should find some near-term support after BI delivered a larger-than-expected 50bp hike, taking the BI rate to 5.25%. BI officials kept the focus on FX stability, stressing that policy will remain directed at guarding the currency and containing imported inflation risks."

"Governor Perry also attributed part of the recent rupiah pressure to seasonal USD demand from dividend repatriation, external debt repayments and Hajj-related flows, while sounding more constructive that these pressures should ease in the months ahead."

"The 50bp hike is a positive surprise and should help anchor sentiment, especially if backed by continued FX intervention and firm forward guidance. In short, BI has bought the rupiah some breathing room, but a more sustained recovery likely requires oil to ease, geopolitical tensions to cool and global yields to stop pushing higher."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart shows tentative signs of it fading while RSI turned lower from overbought conditions. Bearish engulfing price action observed in the session yesterday – typically associated with bearish reversal. We watch for any follow-through in price action to the downside. Support at 17509 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 17350 levels (21 DMA, 38.2% fibo). Resistance at 17700, 17760 (recent high).

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)