United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note sharp intraday swings in USD/JPY after it spiked to 161.92 then fell to 161.06 before closing at 161.54. Intraday, they expect consolidation between 161.10 and 161.90, but its 1–3 week view still looks for a push toward the 2024 high at 162.00 while 160.65 strong support holds.

USD/JPY overbought but still targeting 162.00

"24-HOUR VIEW: The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: “The slight increase in upward momentum suggests upside risk today, but any advance is unlikely to break above 161.85. Support is at 161.20; a breach of 161.00 would indicate that the mild upward pressure has eased.” While USD subsequently broke above 161.85, it pulled back sharply from 161.92 to 161.06. USD rebounded quickly from the low to close 0.16% higher at 161.54. We are not able to derive much from the sharp swings. Today, USD could trade between 161.10 and 161.90."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on USD last Thursday (18 Jun, spot at 160.60). We indicated that USD “is likely to trade with an upside bias, but it remains to be seen if the major resistance at 161.15 is within reach.” After USD surged above 161.15, we highlighted on Friday (19 Jun, spot at 161.25) that “short-term conditions are deeply overbought, but with no sign of a pause yet, USD could rise to the 2024 high of 162.00.” Yesterday, USD rose to 161.92 before pulling back sharply. Although upward momentum has slowed with the pullback, as long as 160.65 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) is not breached, there is still a chance for USD to rise to 162.00."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)