Mexico reported that 12-month inflation rose by 3.94% in May, down from 4.45% previously and the 4.03% expected by market participants. The index, released by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), reinforced expectations that the central bank will maintain its interest rate at current levels for an extended period.

On a monthly basis, headline inflation was up 0.21%, while the core monthly reading came in at 0.22%, both below market expectations.

What does Mexican inflation mean to the Mexican Peso?

The Mexican Peso barely reacted to the news. As previously noted, the lower-than-anticipated figures reinforce the case for no near-term change in interest rates. Banxico trimmed the overnight interbank target rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.50% when it met in May. The next monetary policy meeting will take place on June 25.

USD/MXN Technical Outlook

In the four-hour chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.38 and holds a mild bullish bias as it hovers just under the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at 17.381 while staying above the 100- and 200-period SMAs around 17.34, suggesting downside attempts are being absorbed above the broader trend floor. Short-term momentum remains constructive with the 14-period Momentum indicator in positive territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the neutral 50 line, hinting at a consolidative advance rather than an overstretched move.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-period SMA at 17.38. A sustained break higher would open the way for further gains toward the next psychological hurdles beyond the recent highs. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nearby intraday pivot around the day’s open at 17.4482, turning lower toward the current price zone, ahead of a more important demand band at the 200-period SMA near 17.3401, reinforced by the 100-period SMA at 17.3391, where buyers are likely to re-emerge if the cross retreats.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)