• NZD/USD trades around 0.5710 on Tuesday, down 0.15% on the day.
• The US Dollar remains supported near recent highs despite a slight pullback in the DXY.
• Investors remain cautious as geopolitical tensions and shifting interest-rate expectations influence sentiment.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5710 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes and market caution persists. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, stands near 100.20 after touching a ten-month high of 100.64 earlier in the day.

Markets remain focused on geopolitical developments in the Middle East. According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Donald Trump is reportedly willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed, briefly raising hopes for de-escalation. However, Washington still aims to weaken Iran’s naval and missile capabilities while maintaining diplomatic pressure. Meanwhile, Iran warned it could target US companies operating in the region starting April 1. In addition, an Iranian parliamentary committee has approved a plan to impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping uncertainty elevated in energy markets.

On the macroeconomic front, US data provided moderate support to the Greenback. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.8 in March from a revised 91 in February. The improvement mainly reflects a better assessment of current economic conditions, according to the institution’s Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson, although the indicator remains on a broader downward trend since 2021.

At the same time, expectations of further monetary tightening appear to be fading. Investors are increasingly concerned that rising Oil prices could slow global growth while keeping inflation elevated. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range through the year.

In New Zealand, TD Securities notes that markets now price roughly three rate hikes this year for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), but believes expectations may be excessive.