• XRP ticks up and trades around $1.15 on Monday despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• XRP retail traders mildly increase risk exposure, as perpetual futures Open Interest edged higher at $2.44 billion.
• XRP’s technical picture remains weak, with the MACD and the SuperTrend indicators sustaining sell signals.

Ripple (XRP) edges higher, trading around $1.15 on Monday as appetite for risk gradually returns across the crypto market. Retail traders appear to be making a cautious return from the sidelines, as reflected in XRP derivatives.

XRP rebounds despite renewed geopolitical tensions

Risk-off sentiment continues to dominate, with most digital assets correcting after a brief weekend bounce. Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time since the ceasefire agreement was reached on April 8.

Despite the escalation, United States (US) President Donald Trump told the Financial Times that the strikes between Israel and Iran do not change his desire to bring the ongoing peace negotiations to a conclusion. 

Appetite for risk assets remains on the back burner as investors navigate mounting geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, as evidenced by the crypto Fear & Greed Index, dropping to 8 in Extreme Fear territory on Monday, down from 12 the day before and 38 in May.

Should sentiment fail to improve this week, a sustained recovery in the XRP price could remain a pipe dream. Meanwhile, retail demand for derivatives increased slightly on Monday, with the perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) averaging $2.44 billion, up from $2.28 billion. This minor increase suggests that traders are increasingly piling into risk assets.

Meanwhile, XRP spot ETFs extended their mild bullish streak, with inflows of $2.62 million last week through Friday. This marked the fifth consecutive week of inflows, bringing cumulative inflows to $1.43 billion and net assets to $928 million, according to SoSoValue.

Price analysis: XRP gains momentum

XRP trades at $1.15, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The cluster of medium-term resistance defined by the 50-day EMA at $1.33 and the 100-day EMA at $1.41, together with the longer-term 200-day EMA at $1.63, suggests that any rebound would face layered supply overhead.

A bearish SuperTrend signal at $1.26 and the intact downward resistance trendline, whose break point comes in near $1.52, reinforce the view that rallies are likely to be sold while the price remains capped beneath these levels.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 32 on the daily chart, and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram below the zero line both hint at persistent downside pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the SuperTrend barrier around $1.26, ahead of a more substantial supply zone around the confluence of the 50-day EMA at $1.33 and the 100-day EMA at $1.41. Beyond that, the descending trendline region near $1.52, followed by the 200-day EMA at $1.63, marks a broader reversal area that would need to be reclaimed to soften the broader bearish structure. If the sell-off persists, XRP could drop to retest support at $1.05 while exerting pressure on the pivotal $1.00 level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)