• USD/CHF advances on Tuesday and reaches 0.7870, up 0.35% at the time of writing.
• Rising US Treasury yields reinforce expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy outlook.
• Swiss economic growth accelerates in the first quarter, though the CHF remains under pressure.

USD/CHF trades higher around 0.7870 on Tuesday at the time of writing, gaining 0.35% on the day as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed support linked to expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy stance in the United States (US).

Markets are currently reassessing the US monetary outlook following a sharp rise in Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.613% at the time of press, near its highest level since February 2025. The move reflects investor concerns that rising energy prices could feed into inflation and potentially prompt a more aggressive response from the US central bank.

The US Dollar is also supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could maintain a restrictive stance for longer. Markets have now completely ruled out interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year and are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Reuters also cited comments from DRW Trading market strategist Lou Brien, who said recent market moves reflect investor uncertainty regarding how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could manage persistent inflation. According to Brien, Wall Street is seeking reassurance that the central bank will preserve its independence in policy decisions.

On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump's announcement that a potential military strike against Iran had been delayed slightly improved market sentiment. However, investors remain cautious as diplomatic discussions remain uncertain and significant disagreements continue over Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.

In Switzerland, preliminary data showed that the economy expanded by 0.5% QoQ in the first quarter after growing by 0.2% in the previous quarter. This marks the country's strongest quarterly performance in a year and confirms a gradual recovery in economic activity. Despite this improvement, the Swiss Franc (CHF) struggles to benefit from the positive data amid stronger support currently driving the US Dollar.