Nordea’s Kristian Nummelin notes that strong US data and higher energy prices have recently supported the Dollar, as payrolls, ISM indices and JOLTS all point to a resilient US economy. However, Nordea expects the US Dollar (USD) to weaken in coming months due to structural factors, even as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is forecast to stay on hold with only a low probability of a summer rate hike.

Resilient data but weaker outlook

"Overall, the US economy continues to show resilience despite higher energy prices, which will push household expenses higher."

"Strong US data have offered some support to the dollar, but we expect the dollar to weaken in the coming months due to structural factors."

"We forecast the Fed to remain on hold, but if the data continue to be strong, we do not rule out a rate hike."

"That said, the probability of a hike during the summer remains low."

"While the Fed is well positioned to stay on hold in the coming meetings, the ECB faces greater urgency."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)