Deutsche Bank analysts highlight a sharp selloff in US Treasuries, with 30‑year yields reaching post‑2007 highs and 10‑year yields at their highest since early 2025. Rising real yields and higher Fed hike probabilities underpin the move, while they warn that renewed strikes on Iran could reignite bond market fears reminiscent of April 2025.

Curve records and geopolitical risk

"Back to bonds and this upward pressure on yields was clear around the world yesterday, but it was US Treasury yields that saw the biggest jump, with new records across the curve."

"Most significantly, the 30yr yield (+5.8bps) hit a post-2007 high of 5.18%, whilst the 30yr real yield (+4.0bps) hit a post-2008 high of 2.86%."

"For shorter maturities, the records weren’t quite so big, but the 10yr yield (+7.9bps) still rose to 4.67%, the highest since January 2025."

"And with investors bringing forward their rate hike expectations, the 2yr yield (+7.4bps) also hit its highest since February 2025, at 4.12%."

"The worrying thing would be that with this base in yields formed, where would yields go if strikes resumed on Iran?"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)