• USD/CHF climbs to its highest level since November 2025 as Fed-SNB policy divergence favors the Greenback.
• Fed officials keep the door open to rate hikes, while subdued Swiss inflation allows the SNB to stay on hold.
• Technically, USD/CHF retains a bullish bias with the RSI nearing overbought territory.

USD/CHF extends gains on Friday even as the US Dollar (USD) eases slightly after rising to more than one-year highs. Diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) keep demand tilted toward the US Dollar over the Swiss Franc (CHF).

At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.8080, its highest level since November 2025. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.80 after touching 101.13 earlier in the day, its highest level since May 2025.

Earlier this week, both the Fed and SNB left interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed struck a hawkish tone as policymakers reiterated their commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2% target, while the updated dot plot showed that nearly half of FOMC members expect at least one rate hike this year.

Meanwhile, low inflation in Switzerland has allowed policymakers to maintain their current policy stance. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Thursday that "at the moment it is not necessary to act on interest rates" and added that "everything between 0% and 2% is fine on inflation."

Against this backdrop, the near-term technical outlook for USD/CHF remains bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching overbought territory and the pair trading comfortably above its key long-term moving averages.

Technical analysis:

On the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8080 with a constructive bullish bias, holding above both the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.7849 and 0.7907, respectively.

The location of price over these medium- and long-term SMAs suggests the recent advance remains supported, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68.6 flirts with overbought territory and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 27 hints that the developing uptrend is gaining strength rather than merely consolidating.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the nearby horizontal barrier at 0.8100; a daily close above this level would open the door toward the next resistance at 0.8300, ahead of 0.8500. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-day SMA around 0.7907, with the 100-day SMA at 0.7849 reinforcing a deeper demand zone should a corrective pullback unfold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)