• USD/JPY drifted sideways on Monday after Friday's pullback from near 159.50 to an intraday low close to 157.60.
• The US seized an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday, putting the two-week ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday in jeopardy.
• Tuesday's US Retail Sales and Thursday's PMI data are the week's only major catalysts outside the Iran focus.

USD/JPY edged lower by less than 0.1% on Monday, trading in a tight range around 158.80. The pair slid from highs near 159.50 on Friday to an early-session low close to 157.60 before buyers stepped in, and has since consolidated in a roughly 150-pip band between 158.50 and 159.20 through the Asian and European sessions. Small-bodied candles and overlapping wicks point to indecision as traders await the next move in the US-Iran standoff.

The two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 is looking increasingly fragile after US Navy forces boarded and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, the Touska, in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. President Trump has since declared the truce will end on Wednesday evening and suggested an extension is highly unlikely without a deal, while Iranian officials have publicly denied that a second round of Islamabad talks has been firmly scheduled. Despite the flurry of escalation, including Iran re-closing the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and a surge in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude above $89 per barrel, currency markets have been notably reluctant to price in a collapse of talks. Risk sentiment looks anchored to a best-case outcome, leaving plenty of room for an abrupt repricing should the negotiations fail or military action resume.

The data docket is otherwise relatively light this week. Tuesday's US Retail Sales print and Thursday's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures offer a read on consumer resilience and business conditions after weeks of elevated energy prices. Friday's Japanese national Consumer Price Index (CPI) is unlikely to move the pair meaningfully given that the Tokyo CPI release typically front-runs the national print by several weeks. The University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey later that day rounds out the calendar, though its impact should prove muted while traders keep their attention fixed on the Iran headlines.

USD/JPY 15-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the fifteen-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.83, holding below the day’s open at 159.18, which keeps the near-term tone mildly bearish as intraday rallies continue to be rejected beneath that reference point. The Stochastic RSI has eased back to about 67 from overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating, which reinforces the idea of a capped bounce while price remains under the opening pivot.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the day’s open around 159.18, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to alleviate immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more convincing recovery. On the downside, the lack of nearby defined support levels on this timeframe suggests that any renewed selling could see the pair probing lower intraday lows, with traders watching price action and momentum signals for signs of stabilization before considering a reversal.

In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.83. The pair maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.15 and the 200-day EMA at 154.60, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent pullback. The Stochastic RSI at 21.19 hovers in oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is losing traction while price action remains supported by these underlying trend markers.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 50-day EMA around 158.15, where a break would expose the more robust bullish floor at the 200-day EMA near 154.60. Until those levels give way, the path of least resistance stays to the upside, with any further dips toward the 158 handle likely viewed as corrective within the prevailing uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)