• USD/JPY retreats from the vicinity of the 162.00 mark, or a four-decade high.
• Intervention fears benefit the JPY and weigh on the pair amid a softer USD.
• The bullish technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buying.

The USD/JPY pair continues with its struggle to reclaim the 162.00 mark on Friday and retreats slightly from the vicinity of a 40-year peak. Spot prices hit a daily low, around mid-161.00s during the first half of the European session amid a combination of negative factors, though the downside potential seems limited.

The US Dollar (USD) attracts some sellers for the second straight day amid receding bets for interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, draws support from speculations that the Japanese Yen will step in to prop up the domestic currency and hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations. This, in turn, prompts traders to take some profits off the table and lighten their bullish bets around the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, traders scrambled to price in the geopolitical risk premium following reports that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, prospects for at least one Fed rate hike this year help limit USD losses, while the wide US-Japan rate differential should cap any meaningful JPY appreciation, warranting caution before placing aggressive bearish bets on the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled from prior extremes and now sits near neutral. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips slightly below zero. Momentum indicators together hit at waning upside momentum rather than a full-fledged reversal. Furthermore, the USD/JPY pair holds comfortably above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and keeps the uptrend intact despite the pullback.

Hence, any meaningful corrective decline is more likely to find decent support at the 161.63 area, which is followed by the 100-period SMA pivotal point at 160.74, where buyers are likely to re-emerge on deeper dips. Meanwhile, the focus stays on whether the USD/JPY pair can continue consolidating above these supports, which would leave the broader bullish structure intact and keep the door open for renewed gains once momentum stabilizes.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart