USD: Squeeze risk on geopolitical escalation – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that conditions for a sustained US Dollar rebound remain absent, but heavy speculative shorts leave the currency vulnerable to a squeeze.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that conditions for a sustained US Dollar rebound remain absent, but heavy speculative shorts leave the currency vulnerable to a squeeze. Safe-haven demand and US net energy exporter status could temporarily lift the Dollar if US–Iran tensions escalate and Oil prices spike, though President Trump is seen as unlikely to allow a destabilising escalation before midterms.

Positioning leaves USD exposed to spikes

"While conditions for a sustained USD rebound are still lacking, positioning creates squeeze risk."

"With CFTC data showing heavy USD shorts, safe-haven demand and the US’s position as a net energy exporter could push the USD temporarily higher if US–Iran tensions escalate and oil prices spike."

"That said, President Trump is unlikely to allow a sharp escalation that undermines US financial markets heading into the midterms."

"One implication of IEEPA’s invalidation is that it may reduce the USD’s medium-term risk premium, as alternative tariff authorities are typically less discretionary, making rapid “tariff on/tariff off” swings less likely."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

超过一百万用户依赖 FXStreet 获取实时市场数据、图表工具、专家洞见和外汇新闻。其全面的经济日历和教育网络研讨会帮助交易者保持信息领先、做出审慎决策。FXStreet 拥有约 60 人的团队,分布在巴塞罗那总部及全球各地区。
阅读更多

实时报价

名称 / 代码
图表
涨跌幅 / 价格
GBPUSD
1日涨跌幅
+0%
0
EURUSD
1日涨跌幅
+0%
0
USDJPY
1日涨跌幅
+0%
0

关于 FOREX 的一切

探索更多工具
交易学院
浏览涵盖交易策略、市场洞察和金融基础知识的广泛教育文章,一站式学习。
了解更多
课程
探索结构化的交易课程,旨在支持您在交易旅程的每个阶段的成长。
了解更多
网络研讨会
参加现场和点播网络研讨会,从行业专家那里获得实时市场洞察和交易策略。
了解更多