Canadian Dollar steadies as US Dollar holds ground amid market caution

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USD/CAD holds steady as the US Dollar stabilizes ahead of further US-Iran peace talk updates.
The commodity-linked CAD struggles as falling oil prices drag down the energy-dependent currency.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% this Wednesday.

USD/CAD remains stronger for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.3990 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair is holding its ground as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes ahead of further developments regarding US-Iran peace talks. Because neither Washington nor Tehran has released the official text of the agreement, major shipping lines are delaying vessel reroutings through the strategic waterway until full transparency is established.

The USD/CAD pair may appreciate further as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles against a backdrop of lower oil prices. Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply cautious. According to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.

On the macro front, lower oil prices are easing concerns that an energy-driven inflation spike could trigger a hawkish shift by global central banks. Bond yields have also declined, reducing worries over elevated borrowing costs from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference for cues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to lead the central bank into its next era.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.