Danske Research Team highlights that ECB President Christine Lagarde sees the economic fallout from the Iran war as not yet reaching the ECB’s adverse scenario. Despite higher energy prices, there is no clear evidence of second-round effects, leading the bank to push its expected rate hikes from April and June to June and July as policymakers await more data.

War impact not yet triggering ECB shift

"ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasised that the economic implications of the war in Iran have not yet reached the ECB's adverse scenario."

"Despite rising energy prices, there is no clear evidence of second-round effects to justify rate hikes."

"Lagarde's remarks suggest that the policy meeting on 30 April is likely too soon for any rate adjustments, as the central bank continues to gather more data."

"Last week, we tweaked our ECB call, pushing our expected rate hikes from April and June to June and July."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)