Ripple Price Forecast: XRP struggles below 50-day EMA resistance

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Ripple (XRP) remains elevated above $1.23 at the time of writing on Tuesday, struggling amid a capped upside. Despite an improved overall market sentiment driven by news of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran to end the war in the Middle East, capital inflows remain notably subdued.

XRP consolidates above $1.23 after encountering strong supply at $1.28.
Mild capital inflows through spot ETFs and derivatives weigh on XRP’s rebound, as the 50-day EMA resistance persists.
XRP shows signs of stability, backed by a neutral RSI and a MACD buy signal.

The official peace deal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, with the US expected to remove the naval blockade on Iranian ports while Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, which has put a chokehold on global Oil and Gas supplies since the war broke out.

XRP ETFs post modest capital inflows

Institutional interest in XRP steadied on Monday, with spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recording mild inflows of $2.82 million. Total assets under management climbed back above $1 billion while cumulative inflows stand at $1.44 billion, according to SoSoValue.

Should demand remain muted, the ongoing absence of significant capital inflows through ETFs could continue to place downward pressure on price performance.

The XRP futures OI is gradually rising but remains significantly subdued, given the record set in futures Open Interest (OI) at $10.94 billion in July. CoinGlass data shows the OI averaging $2.77 billion on Tuesday, up from $2.54 billion the day before.

Derivatives data also highlights a direct correlation between the derivatives market and the XRP price, which can often increase the odds of an extended rebound as long as retail demand expands.

Price analysis: XRP trades amid fragile momentum

XRP hovers around $1.23 while remaining under a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.28, with the 100-day EMA at $1.38 and the 200-day EMA at $1.58 reinforcing a layered overhead supply zone.

A downward resistance trendline, whose key break level falls roughly at $1.32, further caps the recovery. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive on the daily chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 51, hinting at improving but still fragile upside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance lies at the 50-day EMA around $1.28, followed by the trendline break level near $1.32. A sustained clearance of these barriers would be needed to expose the 100-day EMA at approximately $1.38 and then the 200-day EMA near $1.58.
If supply overwhelms demand, pullbacks from current levels would leave XRP vulnerable to fresh lows towards $1.00 on the daily chart until a new demand floor is established.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Crypto ETF FAQs

What is an ETF?

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.

Is Bitcoin futures ETF approved?

Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.

Is Bitcoin spot ETF approved?

Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.

Which are the pros and cons of crypto ETFs?

The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.

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