US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Symmetrical triangle top at 102.50 comes into focus

• At around 102.50, the symmetrical triangle’s upper boundary is a potential test for the United States Dollar Index.
• With the 14-day Relative Strength Index near 58, upward momentum appears steady.
• At 102.01, the nine-day EMA provides the first support level.

Trading near 102.40 during Wednesday’s European session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is advancing for a second consecutive day. The index tracks the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies.

Holding above the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) sustains the DXY’s bullish near-term outlook, with both the short- and medium-term trends supported. Meanwhile, a reading of around 58 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to positive momentum without reaching extreme levels, consistent with a steady advance rather than an overstretched rally.

On the daily chart, technical analysis shows the dollar index still trading inside a symmetrical triangle. This suggests a consolidation phase ahead of a breakout in either direction.

Around 102.50, the triangle’s upper boundary could be tested by the DXY. Beyond that lies 102.94, the 19-month high reached on 14 October.

Initial downside support for the US Dollar Index could come from the nine-day EMA at 102.01. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA of 101.41, ahead of the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary near 101.20. A breach of this support confluence would establish a bearish bias, leaving the dollar index under pressure towards the region of 98.56, the nearly six-month low recorded on 20 August.

Dollar draws support as Goolsbee’s ‘real inflation issue’ warning sharpens hawkish Fed tone

An FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10, against an established baseline of 6.8/10, marked a distinctly more hawkish message from the Fed’s Goolsbee and highlighted growing concern over persistent price pressures. By describing the latest CPI as “borderline disturbing,” saying services inflation is “not coming down,” and identifying “a real inflation issue” that the Fed is “going to have to deal with”, he signalled less tolerance for upside inflation surprises. That leaves a high hurdle for any near-term policy easing. His references to overheating prices across “a whole bunch of things” came alongside a description of the job market as “steady and stable” and a warning that inflation becoming embedded in expectations would be a “major concern”. Taken together, these comments strengthen the bias towards retaining, or even tightening, restrictive policy. Such a combination typically supports the Dollar while weighing on risk-sensitive FX.

A rise of 1.69 points took the FXS Fed Sentiment Index to 145.61, leaving it firmly in hawkish territory in line with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score. The increase suggests markets should view Goolsbee’s comments as an incremental hawkish shift in the Fed’s reaction function, with risks tilted towards expectations that policy will stay tighter for longer.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)