Weaker oil prices accompany Euro’s steady showing against Canadian Dollar

October’s final German HICP reading confirmed a monthly decline of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%.
With falling crude prices weighing on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar, EUR/CAD remains supported.
Easing US-Iran tensions and the prospect of a diplomatic resolution weigh on WTI.

EUR/CAD retains support following the final German inflation release, edging up to around 1.5840 during Wednesday’s European session. The modest advance follows small losses the previous day.

A 0.1% month-on-month decline and a 2.8% year-on-year rise in October were confirmed by the final German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, in line with preliminary estimates. September had recorded respective increases of 0.6% and 3.3%, with the final October readings reaffirming the initial estimates.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Why are European sovereign bonds following the US sell-off as ECB expectations shift?

With investors pricing in a more hawkish ECB policy path, Deutsche Bank analysts point out that “earlier in Europe, there was a major selloff for sovereign bonds too, although not quite as big as in the US,”. According to the analysts, Bund, OAT and BTP yields climbed sharply. Markets moved towards fully pricing in a December ECB rate hike and factored in additional tightening through the June 2027 meeting.

Lower oil prices are putting pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), helping EUR/CAD maintain its footing. Extending its decline into a fourth consecutive day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trades near $85.20 per barrel at the time of writing.

Signs of reduced tensions between the US and Iran have sent crude prices lower. Optimism over a possible diplomatic resolution strengthened after US President Donald Trump suggested that further military strikes against Iran may no longer be needed. At the same time, Congressional Democrats are weighing whether to use the approaching government funding deadline to press the Trump administration to end the conflict.

How Is the Euro Performing Today?

The Euro’s strongest performance today was against the Swiss Franc. The table below sets out the percentage changes in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.14%	0.17%	0.03%	0.17%	-0.09%	0.09%	0.33%
EUR	-0.14%		0.03%	-0.11%	0.03%	-0.24%	-0.03%	0.18%
GBP	-0.17%	-0.03%		-0.15%	-0.00%	-0.27%	-0.06%	0.15%
JPY	-0.03%	0.11%	0.15%		0.13%	-0.13%	0.07%	0.28%
CAD	-0.17%	-0.03%	0.00%	-0.13%		-0.26%	-0.06%	0.15%
AUD	0.09%	0.24%	0.27%	0.13%	0.26%		0.22%	0.41%
NZD	-0.09%	0.03%	0.06%	-0.07%	0.06%	-0.22%		0.22%
CHF	-0.33%	-0.18%	-0.15%	-0.28%	-0.15%	-0.41%	-0.22%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Choose the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting the Euro on the left and following that row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.