黄金：美联储预期暂时限制上涨空间 – 道明证券

黄金：美联储预期暂时限制上涨空间 – 道明证券

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道明证券（TD Securities）策略师指出，贵金属，尤其是黄金，因美联储加息概率居高不下导致实际利率维持高位，难以获得动能。大宗商品交易顾问（CTA）持有小幅净空头头寸，情景分析显示交易区间相对狭窄。

道明证券（TD Securities）策略师指出，贵金属，尤其是黄金，因美联储加息概率居高不下导致实际利率维持高位，难以获得动能。大宗商品交易顾问（CTA）持有小幅净空头头寸，情景分析显示交易区间相对狭窄。伊朗协议背景脆弱及能源价格坚挺意味着黄金尚未进入明确的复苏阶段。

CTA空头与受限的交易区间

“贵金属仍未能获得买盘。尽管油价因新闻头条下跌，但利率和美联储加息概率依然偏高，限制了黄金的上涨空间。”

“目前，CTA仍然对小幅净空头头寸感到满意，我们的定价模拟显示在大多数情景下交易区间较为紧凑。”

“如果潜在的协议谈判在短期内抑制油价，测试关键4000美元/盎司下方的下一个卖出触发点的最坏情况可能暂时得以避免。”

“然而，协议框架依然脆弱且能源价格居高不下，表明贵金属尚未完全脱离困境。”

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，编辑审核。）

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