美元/加元:区间保持,公允价值出现分歧 – 加拿大丰业银行
加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)策略师肖恩-奥斯本(Shaun Osborne)和埃里克-西奥雷特(Eric Theoret)指出,加元(CAD)对美元(USD)持平,但受到高企的油价和狭窄的收益率差的支撑

加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)策略师肖恩-奥斯本(Shaun Osborne)和埃里克-西奥雷特(Eric Theoret)指出,加元(CAD)对美元(USD)持平,但受到高企的油价和狭窄的收益率差的支撑。他们认为,美元/加元在基本面上相对于中期1.34的公允价值(FV)显得偏高,并预计近期将在1.3650–1.3720区间波动,重点关注周三的美联储和加拿大央行(BoC)会议。

加元相对于公允价值被低估

"加元在周二的北美交易时段与美元持平,交叉盘表现略显疲软。加元似乎在关键技术水平(美元/加元阻力位在1.37以上)找到了新的支撑,并且相对于我们的公允价值估计仍然被低估。"

"我们对美元/加元的公允价值估计似乎已稳定在中期1.34,提供了相对于当前现货价格约1.37的显著折扣。国内发布的数据仅限于现有房屋销售,显示出2月份收缩速度有所放缓。"

"近期风险集中在相对央行政策的前景以及周三的美联储/加拿大央行双重会议,我们预计加拿大央行将传达中性信息,而美联储则会表现出谨慎的鸽派态度。"

"中性——动能处于中性状态,相对强度指标(RSI)徘徊在50阈值之上。近期价格走势确认了1.37以上的实质性阻力,这是一个局部区间的上限,提供了略低于1.35的平坦支撑。"

"最新的拥堵似乎集中在50日移动平均线(1.3697)附近,上周的反弹似乎已经停滞。我们预计近期将在1.3650和1.3720之间区间波动。"

(本文由人工智能工具协助创建,并由编辑审核。)

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