Ripple Price Forecast: XRP approaches oversold levels as traders assess buying opportunities

• Broader selling keeps XRP near $1.20 as growing concerns over US regulation put pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
• Despite $22 million in liquidations over 24 hours following XRP’s fall, futures Open Interest climbs to 2.33 billion XRP, pointing to stronger retail demand.
• Overhead moving averages continue to constrain XRP, while momentum indicators retain a bearish technical outlook.

Selling pressure continues to constrain Ripple (XRP) near $1.20, having erased its early-week advance to $1.34 following the United States (US) midterm elections. With Democrats due to take control of Congress in January, regulatory unease has prompted many market participants to reposition and rebalance their portfolios.

How are US regulatory concerns affecting XRP?

Growing uncertainty over the direction of US crypto regulation is adding to the headwinds facing the wider cryptocurrency market. Market participants are concerned about the outlook once Democrats take control of the House and Senate in January.

Senator Elizabeth Warren is set to chair the Senate Banking Committee, according to a Wall Street Journal report published on Thursday. Expectations are that Warren will push for tighter crypto rules and consumer protections for crypto entities.

Among Warren’s other potential early priorities, the report lists investigations into alleged insider trading in prediction markets and a review of alleged conflicts of interest involving US President Donald Trump and his family. Her appointment as Senate Banking Committee Chair has not yet been confirmed, though observers see little likelihood of another candidate taking the position.

In an opinion piece published in Time on Thursday, Senator Warren wrote: “Democrats won this election by claiming we are on the side of working people, and working people are counting on us to deliver,”

Why are XRP derivatives liquidations rising?

Traders have suffered losses as selling spreads across the cryptocurrency market, with derivatives participants particularly affected. As of Friday, XRP derivatives liquidations total $22 million over the last 24 hours. Of this, roughly $21 million came from long positions, compared with nearly $1 million from short positions. If long liquidations persist, forced selling and self-reinforcing price declines could deepen the correction.

However, bearish expectations warrant caution: once excess leverage has been removed and speculation subsides, XRP could steady or rebound sharply. Retail traders nevertheless appear to be using the decline to build leveraged exposure. Perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) reached 2.33 billion XRP on Friday, up from 2.28 billion XRP a day earlier. A further improvement in risk appetite could provide enough support for a short-term XRP recovery towards resistance at $1.30.

Technical analysis: Can XRP recover while sellers control the trend?

Trading at $1.20, XRP retains a bearish bias, with all key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the Bollinger Bands’ midline firmly above the price. The downside-oriented structure is reinforced by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.33, the 100-day EMA at $1.32 and the 200-day EMA at $1.36, each acting as an overhead barrier. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading close to 35 suggests that selling pressure persists but has not yet reached extreme levels.

Just above the spot price, the lower Bollinger band around $1.20 marks immediate resistance, with the Bollinger midline near $1.29 providing the next hurdle. Beyond that, the 100-day EMA at $1.32 and the 50-day EMA at $1.33 form a concentrated technical barrier. Further resistance lies at the 200-day EMA of $1.36 and the upper Bollinger band near $1.37.

Unless the pair recaptures the $1.29-$1.33 resistance zone, it would likely remain exposed to additional declines, as the daily chart shows no clear structural support below the current price.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)