TD Securities Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes that Shanghai silver arbitrage signals strong Chinese demand, contrasting with cautious Western investors after the Iran conflict. London OTC markets are still absorbing flows and lease rates point to better availability. This backdrop supports TD Securities’ view that global Silver inventory coverage is improving despite earlier tightness.

Shanghai arb signals robust buying

"Shanghai silver arb points to strong Chinese demand. The shell-shock from the recent conflict is keeping Western investors cautious, but the trend in Shanghai silver arb points to a resurgence in Chinese demand for silver following the unprecedented retail demand for silver in the early months of 2026."

"This demand impulse has kicked off in the days leading up to the war in Iran."

"For the time being, London OTC markets continue to absorb this demand well, with silver lease rates continuing to point to improving availability."

"This contrasts sharply with the early-year market context, and lends strength to our view of rising inventory coverage in global silver markets."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)