US inflation: What do producer prices and Oil signal? – UBS

Expectations of higher US producer prices for October centre on oil, according to UBS economist Paul Donovan. He points out that diesel is directly included in these figures, unlike in consumer price indices.

What Do Producer Prices Signal for Policy?

"Today’s release of US October producer price inflation is expected to show higher prices, with oil leading the way."

"Diesel prices are directly included in this data (they are not in US consumer price numbers)."

"However, there will also be examination of the details to see if there is better evidence of tariff inflation effects fading from the calculation."

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

"New York Fed President Williams sounded hawkish about inflation overnight."

"It is not clear if this is part of a campaign to make the Federal Reserve sound vigilant on inflation, or whether there is a genuine desire to push the non-oil US economy into recession to offset oil prices."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Learn more.)