WTI Price Forecast: Bias Stays Bearish as Prices Remain Below 100-SMA Resistance Near $86.80

WTI's intraday recovery lacks momentum, leaving prices short of the overnight swing high.
Fresh directional positions remain on hold as traders await more clarity on geopolitical developments.
With the technical outlook still bearish, a move lower appears to remain the path of least resistance.

Buying interest at lower levels lifts West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, back above $86.00 in the first half of Thursday's European session. However, the recovery fails to gather momentum. Prices remain below the previous day's swing high, with traders looking for further developments in the Middle East crisis.

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A geopolitical risk premium continues to lend some support to crude oil prices amid reports that US forces launched a series of strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island and Tehran targeted ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar, at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari also said Tehran had shut the strategic Strait of Hormuz and would reopen it only on the orders of the leader of the revolution.

Optimism about a possible diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war nevertheless persists among investors. At the same time, concerns over a potential supply glut, fuelled by growing US crude inventories, are discouraging aggressive bullish positions in oil. US production reached a fresh record in the week ending October 30, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated an increase of about 9 million barrels in US commercial crude inventories for the week ending November 6.

Trading below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.81 leaves crude oil with a bearish near-term technical outlook. Momentum readings add to the weakness: the Relative Strength Index (14) is close to the low-30s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below zero and its histogram is negative. Together, these signals point to continuing downward pressure, although immediate structural support lies at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of $85.61.

If that support gives way decisively, the next Fibonacci support levels would come into focus at $81.26 (61.8%) and $75.06 (78.6%), ahead of a more distant structural base near $67.17. Any recovery would first encounter resistance at the 100-day SMA of $86.81 and then the 38.2% retracement of $89.96. Only a sustained move above these levels would soften the prevailing bearish bias and clear a path towards the 23.6% retracement at $95.34. For now, the cycle-high area around $104.04 remains a distant hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)

What does WTI's daily chart indicate?

WTI Oil: Key Questions Answered

What distinguishes WTI Oil?

Among the crude oil varieties traded internationally, WTI, short for West Texas Intermediate, is one of three major types alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content makes it “sweet”. Regarded as a high-quality oil, WTI is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an oil-market benchmark, with its price regularly cited in media reports.

Which forces influence WTI Oil prices?

Supply and demand determine WTI Oil prices, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, whereas weaker growth can have the reverse effect. On the supply side, political instability, wars and sanctions can cause disruptions that affect prices. Decisions taken by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, are another important influence. Since oil is traded predominantly in US Dollars, the value of the US Dollar also matters: a weaker dollar can make oil more affordable, while a stronger dollar can have the opposite effect.

Why do inventory figures matter for WTI Oil prices?

WTI Oil prices respond to the weekly oil inventory releases from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA), as stock movements reflect shifts in supply and demand. Falling inventories can signal stronger demand and lift oil prices; a build-up can indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API releases its report each Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures tend to be similar, coming within 1% of one another 75% of the time. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

How do OPEC's decisions affect WTI Oil prices?

Production quotas agreed by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) often influence WTI Oil prices. The group comprises 12 oil-producing nations, which jointly set quotas for member countries at meetings held twice a year. Lower quotas can restrict supply and lift oil prices, while higher production has the reverse effect. The wider OPEC+ grouping brings in ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable among them.