Below 1.1050: Euro faces renewed pressure against US Dollar as focus turns to US PPI

• 1.1047 draws some Euro buying against the US Dollar. The outlook is still uncertain.
• At each of the next three policy meetings, TD Securities expects the Fed to raise interest rates.
• October US PPI figures are the next focus for investors.

1.1047 offers temporary support for the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). The pair is trading around that level in Friday’s European session. Its outlook remains uncertain, with the US Dollar outperforming as markets anticipate more near-term interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) than previously expected.

103.24 remains the level held by the US Dollar Index (DXY) at the time of writing, matching the 19-month high reached on Thursday. The index measures the Greenback against six major currencies.

Three Fed meetings, three hikes: TD Securities takes a more hawkish view

Strategists at TD Securities say the firm now anticipates "25bp hikes in December, January, and March," having previously forecast increases only in December and March. The revision marks a more hawkish assessment of the near-term policy trajectory.

The risk of persistently elevated price pressures underpins TD Securities’ expectations for additional Fed rate increases. It warned that the “Fed could hike more if inflation remains strong while the labor market accelerates." However, the firm also cautioned that policymakers "could also halt tightening if uncertainty begins to weigh on the labor market or in the event equities begin a rapid sell-off."

Due at 13:30 GMT, October’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) release is also in focus. Forecasts put monthly headline PPI growth at a more moderate 0.4%, compared with September’s 1.3%. Excluding volatile food and energy items, core PPI is likewise expected to post a smaller increase of 0.3%, against the previous 0.7% reading.

For the Euro, attention turns to the revised Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate at 10:00 GMT. Growth is forecast to remain at the preliminary reading of 0.4%.

1.1064: EUR/USD Technical Analysis Points to Near-Term Weakness

At 1.1064 on the daily chart, EUR/USD retains a bearish near-term bias. Spot sits well below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 1.1170 and is edging lower after failing to regain it. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 35.7, below the midline but outside oversold territory, signals sustained downward pressure with few indications of exhaustion.

A daily close above the 20-day EMA at 1.1170 would be required to soften the bearish tone and allow a wider corrective rebound. That average represents the first significant resistance. As the dataset identifies no nearby structural support levels, traders are likely to assess downside risk through price action around the latest lows. Repeated rejection below 1.1170 would strengthen the view that rallies remain exposed to selling pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)