股票:股市跟随债券收益率上升走势 – 汇丰银行
汇丰资产管理讨论了包括美国10年期国债收益率上升在内的全球债券收益率上升如何影响全球股票。报告认为,当前的收益率变动仍与股票能够承受的环境相符,因为实际收益率仍然较低且利润增长强劲。

汇丰资产管理讨论了包括美国10年期国债收益率上升在内的全球债券收益率上升如何影响全球股票。报告认为,目前的收益率变动仍与股票市场能够承受的环境相符,因为实际收益率仍然较低且利润增长强劲。报告还指出,近期全球股票市场的疲软是由于估值担忧抵消了强劲的美国盈利表现。

股票消化全球收益率上升

“全球债券收益率正在上升,最近几周美国10年期国债收益率上涨约0.2%,投资者在问这次飙升是否终于会扼杀股市?答案取决于债券收益率的变动是‘好’还是‘坏’。”

“那么现在是哪种情况?答案是:情况还不算太糟。自2月以来,债券收益率的大部分变动集中在短端,伴随着央行政策预期的重大转变。”

“尽管名义收益率上升,但经过通胀调整的‘实际’收益率在整个收益率曲线上仍然较低。这对股票来说是好消息,因为股票本质上具有通胀对冲功能,并且对实际利率敏感。”

“值得密切关注债券收益率……但目前来看,这种变动是股票市场可以承受的,尽管会带来一定波动。‘武器’尚不锋利。”

“全球股票市场走软,因对高估值的重新担忧抵消了美国第一季度强劲的盈利表现。在美国,标普500和纳斯达克指数回落,日经225指数也表现疲弱,欧洲斯托克50指数则变化不大。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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