美元指数:预计将突破区间 – BBH
布朗兄弟哈里曼(BBH)的埃利亚斯·哈达德指出,随着与伊朗相关的担忧缓解,风险情绪有所改善,油价走软,美国股市走强,收益率回落。

布朗兄弟哈里曼(BBH)的埃利亚斯·哈达德指出,随着与伊朗相关的担忧缓解,风险情绪有所改善,油价走软,美国股市走强,收益率回落。哈达德认为,受美国利率差异和美国经济韧性支撑,美元指数(DXY)可能突破其96.00–100.00的区间上限,而欧洲央行(ECB)和英格兰银行(BoE)的预期对欧元(EUR)和英镑(GBP)的支撑较弱。

利差支撑美元

“与伊朗战争相关的情绪改善正在推动市场。原油价格处于防御状态,美国股指期货延续历史高点,长期债券收益率继续回落此前的超调。美元兑大多数主要货币略有下跌。”

“我们认为,美元指数(DXY)可能突破近一年以来96.00-100.00区间的上限,这与美国与其他主要经济体之间的利率差异相符。此外,美国加息预期对美元有利,因为这反映了美国经济的韧性和顽固的通胀。”

“相比之下,欧洲央行或英格兰银行的加息预期对欧元和英镑的支撑较弱,因为它们反映了高通胀与经济增长疲弱的滞胀组合。”

“此外,非银行金融中介部门的流动性和杠杆脆弱性可能加剧市场压力。”

“欧洲央行五月金融稳定报告未改变利率预期。欧洲央行警告称,持续的地缘政治紧张局势以及对公共财政可持续性的日益担忧,增加了金融稳定的风险。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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