纽元：道明证券认为新西兰联储将维持利率不变，市场对加息预期过高

纽元：道明证券认为新西兰联储将维持利率不变，市场对加息预期过高

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道明证券（TD Securities）全球策略团队预计纽储行（RBNZ）将维持官方现金利率不变，符合市场共识。分析师认为，纽储行的沟通将强调在经济运行低于产能时，对供应冲击的反应需保持耐心。

道明证券（TD Securities）全球策略团队预计，新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）将维持官方现金利率不变，符合市场共识。分析师认为，纽储行的沟通将强调在经济运行低于产能时，对供应冲击保持耐心。他们认为当前市场对2026年加息超过75个基点的定价过高，并将仔细审查会议纪要中是否有提前收紧的迹象。

纽储行预计将推迟加息

“我们和市场都不预期本次会议会调整现金利率。”

“与行长上周的讲话类似，纽储行的沟通可能会重申其不愿冲动应对供应冲击，尤其是在经济低于产能运行的情况下。”

“这应当对市场今年加息超过75个基点的定价构成挑战。”

“我们将扫描会议纪要，寻找纽储行可能考虑调整立场、提前加息的任何迹象。”

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，编辑审核。）

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