欧洲央行最新调查显示滞胀压力上升-荷兰国际集团
今晨欧洲央行(ECB)调查结果显示,欧元区的滞胀压力在周四的政策会议前有所加剧。

今晨欧洲央行(ECB)调查结果显示,欧元区的滞胀压力在周四的政策会议前有所加剧。

欧洲央行刚刚发布了其银行贷款调查和消费者预期调查的结果。简而言之,两项调查的结果均表明欧元区的滞胀压力明显增加,这不仅使欧洲央行在周四的会议上面临更大挑战,也将影响其后续决策。

2026年第一季度银行贷款调查显示,消费者信贷和企业贷款的信贷标准净收紧,新贷款需求减弱。与此同时,消费者预期调查显示,3月份各时间段的通胀预期均有所上升,未来一年通胀预期由2.5% YoY升至4% YoY。

在周四欧洲央行会议前,今日数据进一步证明,中东战争和能源价格上涨不仅带来了通胀冲击,更是对欧元区经济造成了滞胀冲击。尽管通胀预期上升将推动加息讨论,但经济增长不利影响的迹象增多,使得激进加息变得不那么简单。尽管欧洲央行的主要政策目标是价格稳定,但很难看到其愿意以加剧经济衰退为代价来对抗外生的供给冲击。

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