US CPI beats estimates: XAG/USD retreats | Silver Price Forecast

An upside surprise in US inflation boosts the US Dollar and Treasury yields, weighing on Silver.
Expectations for additional interest rate increases firm following hawkish remarks from Fed officials.
Below its 21-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs, XAG/USD retains a bearish bias.

XAG/USD is trading near $51.23 at the time of writing. Silver is down 3.97% on the day, facing heavy selling on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected US inflation drove the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields higher.

October's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% month on month, exceeding the 0.3% forecast but slowing from September's 0.6% rise. Excluding food and energy, core CPI advanced 0.3%. That matched September's increase and surpassed expectations of 0.2%.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Pressure also came from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who said the Federal Reserve (Fed) needs “at least two more 25-basis-point (bps) rate increases” and that it “may be possible to move more rapidly this winter.” Ahead of the data release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said December may require a half-point rate increase if October core CPI registers “around 0.3% or higher.”

Traders now assign an 89.2% probability to a 25-bps December rate increase, against a 10.8% chance of a larger 50-bps move, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Further Fed tightening is still expected, weighing on Silver as higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no yield. The metal's appeal to investors is also diminished by rising US Treasury yields and a firmer US Dollar.

XAG/USD technical outlook

Trading below the 21-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), XAG/USD retains a distinctly bearish daily chart structure. At around 38, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to signal weakness. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), however, has edged into positive territory. This suggests a tentative stabilisation attempt, not a confirmed bullish reversal.

The horizontal level near $50 provides the nearest downside support, ahead of the year-to-date low at $48.62. Losses could deepen if that low gives way.

The 21-day SMA near $54 marks the first upside hurdle, with horizontal resistance at $55 next. Higher up, the 100-day SMA at $60.50 and horizontal resistance at $65 stand ahead of the longer-term 200-day SMA near $68.60. Together, these levels form a broad overhead supply zone. A recovery through that zone would be needed to alleviate the prevailing bearish pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar: Today's Currency Performance

The US Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the Australian Dollar today. The table below details the percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.64%	0.87%	0.57%	0.54%	1.16%	0.79%	0.86%
EUR	-0.64%		0.22%	-0.05%	-0.09%	0.51%	0.15%	0.22%
GBP	-0.87%	-0.22%		-0.30%	-0.31%	0.29%	-0.08%	-0.00%
JPY	-0.57%	0.05%	0.30%		-0.04%	0.57%	0.20%	0.28%
CAD	-0.54%	0.09%	0.31%	0.04%		0.61%	0.24%	0.31%
AUD	-1.16%	-0.51%	-0.29%	-0.57%	-0.61%		-0.37%	-0.29%
NZD	-0.79%	-0.15%	0.08%	-0.20%	-0.24%	0.37%		0.08%
CHF	-0.86%	-0.22%	0.00%	-0.28%	-0.31%	0.29%	-0.08%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.