Above 102.00: US Dollar Index (DXY) reaches weekly highs before October’s NFP release

Just above 102.00, the DXY sets weekly highs as its rebound gathers pace in risk-off trading.
A tech-led slump in global equities is lifting the safe-haven US Dollar ahead of its peers.
After a week of encouraging labour market releases, investors are preparing for a strong US NFP report later in the day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.4% so far on Friday. It has reached weekly highs just above 102.00, with the US Dollar (USD) leading the major currencies. Demand reflects both risk aversion after a tech-led equity sell-off and investor hopes for a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later in the day.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Sharp losses across global equities have left markets firmly risk-averse on Friday. Investors offloaded chipmakers' shares on concerns that the Democrats' victory in the US midterm elections will lead to tighter AI-sector regulation and delays to plans for new data centres.

Fed jobs assessment seen supporting Dollar as FX investors turn defensive

A net employment gain of 65K is expected in October’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, the main macroeconomic focus, after September’s 29K increase. Expectations of an upside surprise in Friday’s NFP release have strengthened following better-than-forecast labour figures earlier this week: Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change Report and Thursday’s weekly Jobless Claims.

According to ING analyst Chris Turner, a “decent jobs number today will confirm the Fed's understanding that the US jobs market is 'solid' and could provide some support to short-dated rates and the Dollar.”

Taking a broader view, Turner notes that “US short-dated rates have fallen close to 50bp since late September and the Dollar's yield advantage over other major pairs has softened a little,” while cautioning that it remains uncertain “whether this tech sell-off leads to a broader re-assessment of the US growth and inflation trajectory.”

Economic Data Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls: US Employment

Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Nonfarm Payrolls measures the number of new jobs created across US non-agricultural businesses in the preceding month. Monthly payroll changes can fluctuate sharply, and substantial revisions to the figures can also generate volatility in the Forex market. A high reading is generally considered bullish for the US Dollar (USD), whereas a low reading is considered bearish. However, revisions to earlier months and the Unemployment Rate carry as much relevance as the headline number. The market response therefore hinges on its assessment of the BLS report’s data as a whole.

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Upcoming release: Fri 6 Nov 2026 13:30

Release frequency: Monthly

Consensus forecast: 65K

Prior reading: 29K

Data source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Why Traders Watch the US Jobs Report

The first Friday after each reporting month brings America’s monthly jobs report. For forex traders, it is regarded as the most important economic indicator. Policymakers track the change in employment closely because it is strongly correlated with the economy’s overall performance. With full employment among its mandates, the Federal Reserve takes labour market developments into account when setting policy, with implications for currencies. Several leading indicators inform forecasts, but Nonfarm Payrolls frequently surprise markets, generating substantial volatility. Readings above consensus generally support the USD.

Economic Data Indicator

Unemployment Rate: Labour Market Measure

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total civilian labour force without paid work but actively seeking employment. Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it is typically higher in economies experiencing recession than in those expanding. A fall in the rate is generally viewed as positive for the US Dollar (USD), whereas a rise is viewed as negative. On its own, however, the figure usually cannot establish the direction of the next market move. That also depends on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading and the other figures in the BLS report.

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Latest release: Fri 2 October 2026 12:30

Release frequency: Every month

Reported figure: 4.2%

Market consensus: 4.1%

Prior reading: 4.1%

Data source: