Below 158.00: USD/JPY Price Forecast as traders appear hesitant ahead of US NFP

Continued USD buying supports a modest USD/JPY rebound from its weekly low.
Ahead of US NFP, a hawkish BoJ and intervention risks cushion the JPY, restricting gains in spot prices.
With recent trading confined to a range, taking a firm directional position calls for caution.

USD/JPY trades below 158.00. In early European trading this Friday, the pair is struggling to extend its intraday rebound from the weekly low reached earlier in the day. Attention now turns to the closely followed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for a catalyst before the weekend.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Expectations of a December increase in borrowing costs by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), together with continuing geopolitical uncertainty, are supporting further US Dollar (USD) gains. The currency is extending the previous day's rebound from its lowest level since late September, providing support for USD/JPY. Gains in the pair remain constrained, however, as the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish stance and the risk of intervention protect the Japanese Yen (JPY) against deeper losses.

159.09, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), remains above spot prices, as does the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 158.44. Trading beneath both levels leaves the near-term technical bias bearish. At 49.37, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is broadly neutral, offering little counterweight to that negative tone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has also levelled off just above zero. This points to fading bearish momentum, rather than a clear recovery.

Roughly seven weeks of range-bound trading also favour waiting for a clear break in either direction before assessing the near-term path for USD/JPY. The first resistance on a move higher is the 50.0% retracement at 158.44. Beyond that lie the 100-day SMA at 159.09 and the 61.8% retracement at 159.76. A broader ceiling is formed by the 78.6% level at 161.65 and the cycle high near 164.05.

The 38.2% Fibonacci level at 157.12 provides the first downside support, followed by the 156.65 area at the bottom of the trading range. Renewed selling could bring the more distant 23.6% retracement at 155.48 into view as a bearish target, before USD/JPY eventually falls towards the cycle low around 152.83.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY: daily price chart

Economic Data Indicator

US Nonfarm Payrolls

Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Nonfarm Payrolls measures new jobs created across US non-agricultural businesses in the preceding month. Changes in the monthly total can be highly volatile, and substantial revisions can generate further volatility in the Forex market. A strong reading is generally considered bullish for the US Dollar (USD), whereas a weak result is considered bearish. However, revisions to earlier months and the Unemployment Rate carry as much relevance as the headline number. The market response therefore hinges on its assessment of the complete set of data in the BLS report.

Next publication: Fri 06 Nov 2026 13:30

Release frequency: Monthly

Consensus forecast: 65K

Prior reading: 29K

Data source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Nonfarm Payrolls: Significance for Traders

On the first Friday after the reporting month, the US releases its monthly jobs report. Forex traders regard it as the most important economic indicator. Changes in employment closely track the economy’s overall performance and attract scrutiny from policymakers. With full employment among its mandates, the Federal Reserve factors labour market developments into policy decisions, which in turn influence currencies. Several leading indicators help inform forecasts, yet Nonfarm Payrolls often catch markets off guard and generate considerable volatility. A reading above consensus is generally bullish for the USD.