印尼：财政滑坡保持看跌偏向 – 法国兴业银行

印尼：财政滑坡保持看跌偏向 – 法国兴业银行

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法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）分析师库纳尔·昆杜（Kunal Kundu）和加尔文·谢亚（Galvin Chia）表示，印度尼西亚2026年初的财政恶化是由前置支出推动的，初级余额已出现赤字，融资需求增加。

法国兴业银行分析师库纳尔·昆杜和加尔文·贾表示，印度尼西亚2026年初的财政恶化是由前置支出推动的，初级余额已出现赤字，融资需求增加。他们认为这主要强化了现有的担忧，而非为外汇市场带来新的冲击，因此他们对印尼货币保持看跌立场，同时预计长期利率将面临一定上行压力。

财政风险强化看跌外汇立场

“虽然赤字数据加剧了市场对财政状况的长期担忧，但这可能是对外汇影响较小的边际驱动因素，外汇应主要反映更大规模净石油和天然气进口及经常账户扩大的风险。”

“鉴于财政在吸收通胀冲击中的作用，该数据应会略微推高长期利率的风险溢价。”

“财政执行将继续被密切监控，我们预计印尼当局将保持对国际投资者看法的敏感。”

“这些数据并未改变我们的信念：我们维持对外汇的看跌偏向以及对利率的熊市趋平偏向。”

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，编辑审核。）

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