Indonesian Rupiah: Oil gains and BI decision shape IDR – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) weakness is driven by higher Oil prices and elevated global yields, even as domestic sentiment improves after President Prabowo’s speeches and the BI governor nomination. Technicals show waning bearish momentum in USD/IDR with two-way trade likely. Key resistance and support levels are highlighted around recent moving averages and Fibonacci retracements.

Rupiah pressured by external drivers

"IDR slipped modestly as higher oil prices and elevated global yields weighed on broader risk sentiment. That said, the domestic sentiment appears somewhat better anchored following President Prabowo’s two major speeches last Friday."

"His proposed 2.4% fiscal deficit for 2027 and clarification around the role of the new commodity-export agency helped ease some concerns over fiscal discipline and greater state intervention. This follows the nomination of Destry Damayanti as BI governor, which was also seen as providing some reassurance on policy continuity."

"Near term, however, IDR remains sensitive to oil-price swings and broader risk sentiment. Focus today turns to BI, where FX stability and policy guidance may matter more for IDR than the rate decision itself."

"USD/IDR last closed at 17857 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact but shows signs of waning while RSI showed signs of going higher. 2-way trades likely, with risks to the upside."

"Resistance at 17940 (21, 50 DMAs). Support at 17760, 16620 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)