BNY’s Geoff Yu expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.50%, supported by stronger Gross Domestic Product (GDP), resilient labor markets and firm inflation near the top of target. Yu highlights that markets will focus on forward guidance and whether a hawkish bias is retained, keeping the policy rate on track toward 3.00% by early 2027.

RBNZ hike and guidance in focus

"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to hike, but the risk is that it disappoints the most hawkish pricing."

"We expect the RBNZ to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25bp to 2.50%, marking its first rate hike since May 2023."

"The key focus will be its forward guidance and whether it would retain a hawkish bias, signaling further tightening and keeping the policy rate on track to reach 3.00% by Q1 2027."

"Attention will then shift to policy, with decisions from the RBNZ and Bank Negara Malaysia expected to guide expectations for the regional rate outlook."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)