Bitcoin Bull Score drops to 20 amid contraction in USDT supply – CryptoQuant

• A fall to 20 in Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index, alongside bearish readings across several market indicators, has fuelled concerns over a deeper correction.
• A 284,000 BTC contraction in apparent demand over 30 days represents the leading cryptocurrency’s steepest decline since March 2025.
• A $6.6 billion fall in Tether’s USDT market capitalisation over 60 days marks its biggest contraction since mid-2022.

A simultaneous shift to bearish readings across Bitcoin’s (BTC) market indicators has prompted fears of a deeper correction for the leading cryptocurrency, even though historical comparisons point to similarities with earlier market bottoms.

Bitcoin Bull Score Index retreats to its lowest since April 2025

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index fell to 20 from 90 on 13 October in less than four weeks, signalling a marked deterioration in market conditions, the firm said in a report published on Wednesday.

April 2025 saw the most recent decline of a similar scale, after a tariff-driven market sell-off. The index likewise reached 20 on that occasion, then rebounded to 80 within two months as Bitcoin formed a local bottom.

Several factors lie behind the latest downturn, the firm cautioned: profit-taking after September’s rally, a more hawkish outlook for the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Binance hack and the Republicans’ midterm defeat.

The report stated: "The April 2025 collapse had a single cause and reversed as soon as the tariff news faded. This one is broader, which argues for a slower repair,"

Over 30 days, Bitcoin’s apparent demand shrank by 284,000 BTC, its sharpest decline since 28 March 2025. According to CryptoQuant, comparable contractions during March 2025 and June-July 2026 coincided with local market bottoms. Apparent demand contracted by 309,000 BTC in March 2025 and by 273,000 BTC in June 2026.

With the Coinbase Premium Index negative throughout the past 30 days and averaging -0.14%, the firm identified weak US buying pressure as a possible barrier to recovery.

CryptoQuant wrote: "In both earlier episodes the premium turned positive before or as demand recovered; US buyers led the bottom. That has not happened yet,"

A $6.6 billion decline in Tether’s USDT market capitalisation over 60 days also points to deteriorating stablecoin liquidity. This is the largest contraction in CryptoQuant’s available data, which extend back to mid-2022, the firm said.

By comparison, the contraction following the FTX collapse in December 2022 amounted to $3.2 billion, less than the latest decline.

The firm noted: "This is the first time in the current cycle that USDT supply, apparent demand and the Bull Score have all been at or near their lows at once,"

As rallies in the current cycle have depended on expanding stablecoin supply to provide fresh liquidity, CryptoQuant cautioned that the contraction could reduce the likelihood of a Bitcoin recovery.

CryptoQuant noted: “Stablecoin supply is the dry powder of the crypto market; when it shrinks, new demand for Bitcoin has to come from somewhere else,”

Bitcoin slips beneath its key 365-day moving average

The 365-day moving average at $76,400 has also given way, with Bitcoin’s break below it viewed by CryptoQuant as a bearish signal. Attention now turns to the 200-day moving average at $73,200 as the next significant support level. A move back above the 365-day average would help re-establish Bitcoin’s bullish market structure, the firm said.

CryptoQuant wrote: “The 365-day average is itself declining, falling about $40 a day, so reclaiming it gets slightly easier each week the price holds,”

A continued slide towards or beneath the 200-day average could reinforce the case for a more pronounced correction, CryptoQuant cautioned.

The report added: “The 200-day moving average at $73.2K is the level that separates a shallow correction from a deeper one,”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $74,400 after gaining 1.3% over the past 24 hours.