Within the Trump administration, some officials believe that maintaining the blockade for another two months could inflict lasting damage on Iran’s energy sector. Similar views have been echoed in broader analysis, suggesting that the U.S. is not merely delaying but actively using time as a strategic weapon — aiming to weaken Iran’s economy through prolonged maritime pressure and potentially trigger internal instability. This signals that Washington may be prepared for a sustained war of attrition.

On the same day, OPEC+ faced a major disruption. The United Arab Emirates announced it would withdraw from both OPEC and the broader alliance effective May 1, with long-term production capacity potentially increasing by 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day. Under normal circumstances, such a move would significantly weigh on oil prices. However, the market reaction was muted — Brent briefly pulled back by around $2 before quickly rebounding, highlighting strong underlying demand.

This resilience suggests a clear market consensus: near-term supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz outweigh any future production increases from the UAE. A Goldman Sachs report published on April 26 underscored the severity of the situation, estimating that approximately 14.4 million barrels per day of production losses in the Persian Gulf are driving an unprecedented drawdown in global oil inventories at a pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day.

Market data shows Brent crude reached an intraday high of $112.70, rising as much as 4.1% before closing at $111.26 (+2.8%). Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $99.93, briefly breaking above the psychological $100 level during trading.

Brent prices above $110 carry significant implications beyond fuel costs. The most immediate impact is on inflation. Rising oil prices are feeding directly into gasoline, transportation, and logistics costs, pushing up consumer price indices.

As of April 28, the average U.S. gasoline price has climbed to approximately $4.18 per gallon, up $1.19 since late February. As consumers face higher fuel costs, inflation expectations begin to reinforce themselves.

The bond market has already reacted. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen from around 4.25% last week to above 4.35%, while the U.K. 30-year gilt yield has approached its highest level this century. The U.K. 10-year yield has reached 5% for the first time since late March.

These movements signal that investors are repricing long-term inflation risks and increasingly betting on a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment. Market-implied inflation expectations have climbed to multi-month highs, likely making Federal Reserve policymakers more cautious about cutting rates — even if labor market conditions begin to weaken. Currently, the market is pricing in only about a 20% probability of a Fed rate cut by year-end.

A further warning signal comes from the Bank of Japan. On April 28, the BOJ held rates steady at 0.75%, but the vote split 6–3, with some members supporting a rate hike to 1.0%.

Such division within a traditionally dovish central bank reflects a broader shift — global inflation pressures are moving from expectation to reality.