Copper: Why are supply risks mounting despite strong US imports? – Commerzbank

Copper prices have slipped below USD 14,000 per ton as broader risk aversion and selling in technology stocks outweigh support from strong US import demand. Against this backdrop, Commerzbank’s commodity team points to disappointing copper output in Chile, where third-quarter production hit a two-decade low. Cochilco’s revised outlook projects an 8.4% contraction in output in 2026, followed by a modest recovery of just 3% in 2027.

Can copper prices withstand pressure as Chile lowers forecasts?

"Accordingly, the state copper commission Cochilco has revised its production forecast sharply downwards: instead of a marginal decline of 0.6%, it now expects production in the world’s largest copper-producing country to slump by 8.4% to 4.94 million tons this year."

"For next year, the commission at least forecasts a modest recovery of 3% to just under 5.1 million tons (previous forecast: 5.55 million tons)."

"Copper also receives support from persistently strong US import demand: according to information provider IHS Markit, 207,000 tons of copper were imported in October."

"However, the figures are not helping copper prices this morning: amid increased risk aversion towards technology stocks, copper is also being dragged lower, falling below USD 14,000 per ton to a seven-week low."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)