EUR/JPY Price Forecast: What Next After a Dip Below 177.00 Near the Nine-Day EMA?

Initial support for EUR/JPY could emerge at 175.07, its 12-month low.
Momentum appears neutral to soft, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index near 46.
At 177.03, the nine-day EMA presents the nearest resistance.

Bearish pressure persists in EUR/JPY as the cross trades near 176.90 in Thursday’s Asian session, extending its decline to a second consecutive day. On the daily chart, price action remains inside a descending channel, pointing to a continued bearish bias.

With EUR/JPY below both its nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the near-term outlook remains constrained. Both the shorter- and longer-term EMAs sit above the price, signalling that downside risks persist. Meanwhile, a reading of around 46 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates neutral-to-soft momentum, rather than oversold conditions, allowing scope for further corrective pressure.

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A decline could first take EUR/JPY towards 175.07, the 12-month low recorded on 30 October, before bringing the descending channel’s lower boundary near 173.60 into focus. Should the cross break beneath the channel, the area around 169.72, its 15-month low, would become accessible.

A recovery, by contrast, could bring an initial test of the nine-day EMA at 177.03. Beyond that lie the descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.20 and the 50-day EMA at 178.37. Clearing this medium-term price average would trigger a bullish reversal, supporting a move by EUR/JPY towards the region of its all-time high of 187.95, recorded on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: What Does the Daily Chart Indicate?

Stronger domestic demand is playing an increasingly significant role in supporting the Japan Government Bond market, according to analysts at MUFG. Drawing on Ministry of Finance figures, they observe that “the data confirming this pick-up in JGB buying by Japanese households comes from the MoF,” whose website has a section devoted to individual JGBs. The issuance figures in that section “show a marked pick-up in issuance to individuals with the November total for 3-, 5-, and 10-year totalling JPY 2,026bn, the largest single-month total,” highlighting the extent of the recent change in household participation.

(An AI tool assisted in writing the technical analysis in this story. Find out more.)

How Is the Euro Performing Today?

The Euro recorded its weakest performance against the Japanese Yen today. The table below sets out the percentage changes in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.13%	0.14%	-0.10%	0.06%	0.02%	0.05%	0.00%
EUR	-0.13%		0.01%	-0.21%	-0.05%	-0.11%	-0.09%	-0.13%
GBP	-0.14%	-0.01%		-0.21%	-0.10%	-0.13%	-0.09%	-0.14%
JPY	0.10%	0.21%	0.21%		0.13%	0.10%	0.11%	0.09%
CAD	-0.06%	0.05%	0.10%	-0.13%		-0.02%	-0.01%	-0.04%
AUD	-0.02%	0.11%	0.13%	-0.10%	0.02%		0.03%	-0.02%
NZD	-0.05%	0.09%	0.09%	-0.11%	0.00%	-0.03%		-0.01%
CHF	-0.01%	0.13%	0.14%	-0.09%	0.04%	0.02%	0.00%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. To read EUR (base)/USD (quote), for instance, choose the Euro in the left-hand column and follow its row across to the US Dollar; the intersecting cell gives the percentage change for that pair.