Ripple and Stellar outlook: XRP steadies after losses as XLM’s recovery continues

• XRP remains under pressure near $1.055 on Thursday, with losses for the week so far exceeding 5%.
• XLM’s modest recovery continues around $0.148 after a 1.73% gain in the previous session.
• Recovery potential remains constrained for both tokens by softer on-chain metrics, even as momentum readings point to overstretched downside conditions.

Bearish pressure persists in Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) despite tentative signs of a recovery on Thursday. While XRP changes hands near $1.055, XLM retains modest gains around $0.148. The improvement in price action has not removed the constraints on either altcoin’s recovery prospects, as on-chain activity continues to weaken.

Do on-chain metrics warrant caution?

A bearish picture for both altcoins emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders are evident across XRP’s spot and futures markets, with sellers holding the upper hand. Signs of heating in the spot market further underline the cautious, broadly bearish sentiment among Ripple traders.

Sellers also dominate XLM’s spot and futures markets. Large whale sell orders are indicated in the spot market, while the remaining metrics are neutral. Taken together, these readings point to a cautious-to-bearish stance among XLM traders.

XRP technical outlook: Is the downside overstretched?

The near-term outlook for XRP remains bearish on Thursday, with the token trading at $1.055, well below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs stand at $1.274, $1.293 and $1.354, respectively.

An oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 24 points to an overstretched decline. Selling pressure nevertheless persists, according to the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), although it is gradually easing.

Any upward move would first encounter the horizontal resistance near $1.160, with the $1.300 region next in focus. Beyond that lies the EMA cluster, starting with the 200-day EMA near $1.354, followed by higher resistance levels at $1.540 and $1.900.

The psychological $1.000 mark provides immediate support. Despite momentum already being oversold, a sustained breach of that floor would likely leave XRP vulnerable to a deeper correction.

XLM technical outlook: Is the bearish trend losing strength?

A bearish near-term bias remains in place for XLM as it trades at $0.148 on Thursday, continuing its retreat below the major EMAs. Overhead, the 50-day EMA at $0.173, the 100-day EMA at $0.179 and the 200-day EMA at $0.185 form a layered supply zone. Rallies are therefore likely to face limits while the price stays below this cluster.

Downward pressure remains evident in the RSI, which stands at 33, just above oversold territory. A slightly negative MACD also supports the view that the trend is weakening, rather than signalling a confirmed reversal.

For buyers attempting a rebound, the horizontal resistance near $0.153 is the first obstacle, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.173; together, these form a more substantial hurdle. Further recovery targets lie at the 100-day EMA of $0.179, the 200-day EMA of $0.185, the earlier trendline break area near $0.208 and the higher horizontal resistance at $0.234, in that order.

At $0.136, the horizontal level offers the only nearby structural support. A break below it would likely pave the way for a deeper decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)