GBP/USD Price Forecast: Is the Pair Vulnerable Below 1.3300 Amid a Bullish USD Ahead of UK GDP?

• Selling pressure persists in GBP/USD for a third consecutive day as the USD builds on its post-US CPI gains.
• The USD reaches its strongest level since April 2025 as Fed rate-hike expectations strengthen and geopolitical risks lend support.
• Technical indicators favour the bears, suggesting the pair’s downtrend could continue.

Bullish sentiment towards the US Dollar (USD) leaves GBP/USD looking vulnerable, with spot prices trading just above the mid-1.3200s. During Thursday’s Asian session, the pair slipped to a fresh four-week low, extending its decline to a third consecutive day and recording its fifth negative day in the past six.

Pressure on GBP/USD comes as the USD climbs to its strongest level since April 2025, supported by uncertainty in the Middle East and growing expectations of a Fed rate hike. Tuesday’s stronger-than-forecast US consumer inflation data, followed by hawkish remarks from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, reinforced market expectations that a rate increase is imminent. Traders have also begun factoring in the possibility of a sizeable 50-basis-point (bps) hike at the next FOMC meeting in December.

Further declines could, however, be contained by support for the British Pound (GBP) from the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance. With a batch of UK macroeconomic releases due, including monthly and quarterly GDP reports, traders also appear reluctant to take positions for the next directional move before seeing the data.

The technical picture continues to favour the downside. Bearish traders viewed the sustained overnight break below 1.3300 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from October’s lows as an important trigger. Reinforcing that negative outlook, spot prices remain below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which stands at 1.3381 on the 4-hour chart. Taken together with the recent failure to establish a foothold above 1.3500, these signals suggest that further declines remain the path of least resistance for GBP/USD.

Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 26 in oversold territory, signalling that the decline is stretched, it has yet to provide a clear recovery signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also retains a subdued profile and a negative reading below zero. These indicators support the prospect of additional losses towards the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3216. Beyond that lies the next significant support and structural floor near 1.3138, established by the recent cycle low.

A corrective recovery would initially face the 61.8% retracement at 1.3278, with subsequent resistance at the 50% level of 1.3321 and the 38.2% retracement of 1.3364. Above those levels, the 100-period SMA at 1.3381 combines with the 23.6% retracement at 1.3417 to form a broader resistance zone. GBP/USD continues to trade below this cluster.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

What does the GBP/USD 4-hour chart indicate?