Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC withstand pressure as MSCI removes Strategy from global indices, putting billions in fund flows at risk?

• Selling pressure keeps Bitcoin below $73,800 on Thursday, with losses so far this week extending beyond 1.5%.
• Strategy faces removal from global indices following an announcement by index provider MSCI on Wednesday.
• Withdrawals from US-listed BTC spot ETFs reached $299.90 million on Wednesday, extending the outflow streak to a fifth consecutive day.

Bearish sentiment continues to weigh on Bitcoin (BTC), which trades below $73,800 on Thursday following a correction of over 1.5% so far this week. Wednesday’s announcement by global index provider MSCI that it will remove Strategy (MSTR) and other BTC-holding companies from global indices deepened the negative mood, placing billions in fund flows at risk. Weakening institutional demand this week has also constrained the Crypto King’s recovery: spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) saw nearly $300 million withdrawn on Wednesday, their fifth consecutive day of outflows.

Could Strategy’s Removal Trigger Billions in Outflows?

Strategy faces exclusion from MSCI’s global indices after the global index provider announced its decision on Wednesday. With 850,364 BTC currently on its books, Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

To align their portfolios with the changes, index funds following the affected benchmarks may have to sell their Strategy shares by November 30. MSCI’s move directly concerns Strategy’s shares, not its Bitcoin holdings. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency could also feel the effects, given Strategy’s status as the largest Bitcoin treasury.

The exclusion list also names Tokyo-listed Metaplanet, another company that accumulates and holds Bitcoin, alongside UK-based uranium investment company Yellow Cake. Effective December 1, the companies will exit the MSCI USA and MSCI World indices.

Potential forced selling of shares could pressure the stocks of these BTC-holding companies and, indirectly, sentiment towards BTC. These businesses provide institutions with a route to Bitcoin exposure. Prolonged selling of their shares could therefore weaken investor confidence in corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, creating an additional obstacle to BTC’s recovery.

Is Institutional Demand Losing Further Ground?

Demand for Bitcoin from institutions has weakened further so far this week. According to SoSoValue data, net withdrawals from BTC spot ETFs totalled $299.90 million on Wednesday, extending a run of outflows that began last week to five consecutive days. Should withdrawals persist and gather pace through this week, BTC could come under further pressure and enter a deeper price correction.

Can the Nasdaq’s Recovery Shape Bitcoin’s Next Move?

A marked divergence has emerged between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq so far this week, with BTC continuing to lag the other risk-sensitive asset. Against Monday’s 3.55% rally in the Nasdaq, Bitcoin managed a gain of only 0.69%. Wednesday brought a similar contrast: the technology-heavy index climbed nearly 2%, while BTC advanced a modest 0.30%.

A K33 report found that, across all five observed instances, Bitcoin’s performance over the subsequent 20-day period moved in the same direction as the Nasdaq. In a wider sample covering 16 strong Nasdaq rebounds after market corrections, BTC rose in eight of the nine instances in which the Nasdaq extended its gains (Figure 15), delivering a median return of 2.9%. By contrast, all seven instances in which the Nasdaq’s rebound faltered saw Bitcoin fall (Figure 16), with a median loss of 21%. Whether the Nasdaq can maintain its recovery thus appears crucial to Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.

While Bitcoin has lost 1.5% so far this week, the technology-heavy index has recouped nearly all of last week’s losses. The gap underlines BTC’s relative weakness even as appetite for risk improves in equities. Historical observations suggest that, should the Nasdaq’s recovery falter, Bitcoin could suffer substantially larger losses than the technology index. 

A lasting equity rebound, on the other hand, could lend Bitcoin support. Even so, BTC’s recent underperformance indicates that better risk appetite may not immediately produce a stronger recovery in the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: Can Bulls Challenge Bearish Control?

Trading at $73,727 on Thursday, Bitcoin retains a bearish near-term outlook below its key Exponential Moving Averages. Above the price sit the 200-day EMA at $76,384, the 100-day EMA at $77,411 and the 50-day EMA at $78,701. Their positioning suggests that the recent rebound is still constrained within a broader corrective phase. 

Momentum indicators also favour sellers despite occasional bounces. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 34, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish picture.

For any upside move, the first resistance is the 200-day EMA around $76,384. Beyond that lie the 100-day EMA near $77,411 and the 50-day EMA at about $78,701. Together, these levels present a closely packed barrier that bulls would have to reclaim to reduce downside pressure. Further ahead, horizontal resistance at $85,000 poses a more significant challenge, as supply seen previously could re-emerge there. 

With no nearby support mapped on the downside, a break below current levels would point BTC towards the psychological support zone around $70,000 before the price stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)